Imperial expansionism and the prospects for the decline of Russia: a historical and political analysis

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to analyze the reasons for the expansionist policy of the Russian Federation, based on the Russian imperial tradition and the potential capabilities of the leading Western powers to counteract Moscow's desire to revise the results of the Cold War. The methodology of the research is based on a combination of general scientific (analysis, synthesis, generalization) and special historical (historical-genetic, historical-typological, historical-systemic) methods with the principles of historicism, systematicity, scientificity and verification. The article also uses methods of historical analogies and political forecasting. The latter, in particular, is suitable for predicting the possible decline of the Russian Federation as an imperial entity. Scientific novelty of the work. The authors believe that the revival of Russian expansionism in the post-Soviet space became possible due to the actual indulgence of the West, led by the USA, to the policy of Russian imperial revenge, the beginning of which should be the restoration of the Soviet Union within the borders of 1991. The result of the West's loyal attitude to Russian geostrategic plans was not only the wars of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet space, but also the conviction of the Russian authorities to assist the administration of US President D. Trump in returning Russia to the status of an influential international actor. The basis for such a policy of the Russian Federation is the history of US-Russian relations over the past 100 years. However, as the history of the collapse of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union has shown, such a US policy does not guarantee the preservation of Russia as an empire. The authors are convinced that the final decline of the Russian Empire can be led to the defeat of Russia in the war with Ukraine and its subsequent democratization. Conclusions. Thus, the consequences of the West's actual indulgence in the policy of Russian imperial revenge were the wars of the Russian Federation in Georgia and Ukraine, and the conviction of the Russian authorities in the effectiveness of the policy of aggressive wars, which, together with the use of nuclear blackmail tactics, will contribute to the return of Russia to the status of an influential international actor. The basis for this policy of the Russian Federation is the history of US-Russian relations over the past 100 years, the leitmotif of which was the desire of the United States to preserve Russia as a counterparty in various models of world order due to the predictability of its foreign policy, which is based on territorial expansion and world domination, as well as fear of the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. To overcome the fear of the Russian nuclear threat, Western countries must increase sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation, which will make it impossible to continue Russian aggressive wars. The only way to encourage Moscow to negotiate is a policy of forcefully forcing Russia to peace. Also, as the history of the collapse of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union shows, military defeat and democratization of Russia can lead to the final decline of the three-hundred-year-old Russian imperial project.