ADAPTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT AS AN ELEMENT OF HYBRID PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The article scientifically substantiates the conceptual foundations of integrating adaptive risk management into the architecture of hybrid project management under conditions of high economic turbulence and technological uncertainty. The relevance of the research is driven by the need to transition from static, deterministic risk management models to dynamic systems capable of selforganization and rapid transformation in response to external challenges, including martial law in Ukraine and global market volatility. The study conducts a comparative analysis of cascading (Waterfall) and agile (Agile) methodologies, identifying the advantages of the «Water-Scrum-Fall» hybrid approach, which combines strategic milestone planning with tactical iteration flexibility. The scientific novelty of the results lies in the development of a structural-functional model of an adaptive risk management mechanism, including the implementation of a dynamic «trigger matrix» and multi-level operational resilience scenarios («stable adaptive», «hybrid resilience», «crisis relocation»). Particular attention is paid to quantitative forecasting methods for budget deviations using Monte Carlo simulation and a mathematical apparatus for assessing the expected impact of risks on fixed-budget IT projects. For the first time in the context of hybrid management, the behavioral aspect of risk management is integrated through the use of corrective coefficients for cognitive biases (debiasing), such as optimism bias and the sunk cost effect. The role of digitalization as the main facilitator of adaptability is substantiated, specifically through the use of cloud environments (Microsoft 365, SharePoint), ERP systems, and artificial intelligence tools for proactive threat identification. The practical value of the study lies in the development of algorithms for dynamic switching of management strategies depending on threshold values of requirement instability and technological complexity. Modeling results based on real-world IT projects confirmed that implementing the proposed approach reduces the probability of critical budget and schedule overruns by 20-30%. The article provides recommendations for forming integrated risk registers and defining stakeholders' risk appetite as a basis for making informed management decisions in complex infrastructure and innovative projects.